The Closed Borders of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and Their Implications on Economics and Trade, May Represent a Path to Peace at the Expense of a Grieving Population

By Martin Accad

News

One aspect of the Syrian and Iraqi wars that is seldom talked about in the news is the question of closed borders and its impact on the economies of Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Jordan has been the primary party concerned with the closure of its borders with Syria and Iraq. Before the Syrian war, billions of dollars’ worth of goods annually and thousands of trucks daily made their way across borders into Jordan. Cross-border trade has dropped down to close to nil since the closing of the borders as a result of the war. With an 8% increase of its population due to refugee influx, accompanied by a significant hike in rental prices, and the rise of unemployment among its local population, Jordan’s economy has suffered greatly.

Talks of reopening Jordan’s borders with Syria and Iraq intensified during the summer months of 2017, eventually leading to the reopening of the border with Iraq at the end of August and giving a boost to the economy and the agricultural sector. The border with Syria remains closed.

Analysis

Economic growth is key to stability in Jordan and explains its concerns about closed borders. These concerns have been driving efforts on Jordan’s part to contribute to peaceful settlements inside Syria and Iraq. The Jordanian government has been using its leverage with moderate armed Sunni groups on its northern border to try and broker a deal with Damascus, with Russia’s backing. The efforts with Syria have so far failed, as the proposal to allow government-affiliated civilian authorities to take back control of borders in regions still under rebel control have been seen as equal to a restoration of the regime’s legitimacy and have therefore been resisted. Even proposals where rebel groups would stand to gain financially from restored trade through the levy of taxes have so far not borne any fruit. The border closures have also had a knock-on effect on the economies of other countries in the region, including Lebanon. Reopened borders would, in addition, hail the possibility for the return of refugees to Syria and the beginnings of a reconstruction.

On the other hand, Russia has been focusing on growing its leverage in the Middle East after the US’s quasi pull out of its interests to the profit of an ‘America first’ policy. Various other regional powers have also sought to grow their leverage, including Iran, Turkey, and Gulf States. Russia’s primary interest has been in growing its arms contracts in order to boost its own economy, steering a careful course between its emerging Syrian alliance and its more traditional inclination towards Israel.

Theological Perspectives

Will the stretched economies of Syria’s neighbors become the doorway to a peaceful settlement to the war? How do Syrians feel about such efforts that seem more consumed with self-interest than with the well-being of a decimated population? There seem to be serious ethical implications to these developments, as they would reflect the fact that the solution was always there. In effect, people suffering economically appear to be more important than issues of human rights and autocratic oppression that triggered the rebellion. Yet, it would appear that so far, the economic situation was never sufficiently powerful to drive the various warring parties and their allies to put an end to the bloody conflict.

The Syrian population is trapped in a sinful web, motivated to a large extent by outside nations’ interests, which have been playing out on the ground. The politics and economics of the Kingdom of God would challenge such a drive, as the economic stabilization of neighboring states would come at the expense of the Syrian population. Nor will an economically-driven settlement in Syria address the deeper anxieties and apprehensions of a population driven to rebellion against its government.

The politics of the Kingdom of God would seek to address these deeper concerns, and the economics of the Kingdom would focus primarily on the grievous losses that the Syrian people have suffered in the past few years.